In the dynamic landscape of Singapore’s real estate, the latest trends reveal a nuanced story. While condominium rentals continue their fourth consecutive monthly drop, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) rental market showcases signs of resilience, reaching an all-time high in November.
Condo rental market
November’s descending spiral
The month of November witnessed a continued decline in condo rental prices, marking the fourth consecutive month of descent since the peak in July. According to Luqman Hakim, Chief Data & Analytics Officer at 99.co, this downward trend is expected to persist in December due to the holiday season but is anticipated to rebound in the first quarter of 2024.
Analysts attribute this decline to factors such as increased supply, decreasing demand, and tenants opting for more affordable alternatives like HDB flats.
Despite the ongoing decline, year-on-year growth in condo rental prices remains at 6%, posing the question of whether a new rental floor will be established.
Read more: Condo and HDB rental markets dip in volumes in August 2023
Analysing November 2023 data
Breaking down the November 2023 data, condo rental prices saw a 1.4% decrease from October. The core central region (CCR) and rest of central region (RCR) experienced a 2.0% decline, while outside central region (OCR) rents remained steady.
On a year-on-year basis, overall rents increased by 6.3%, with CCR, RCR, and OCR rents growing by 5.0%, 6.4%, and 7.7% respectively.
Read more: Condo rental prices drop for second consecutive month
Volume dips mirroring price trends
Condo rental volumes mirrored the price decline, falling 8.4% month-on-month to approximately 4,950 units rented in November, down from 5,402 units in October.
This represents a 1.5% decrease on a year-on-year basis and a substantial 12% drop from the five-year average volume for November. Regionally, 36.6% of total volumes came from OCR, 32% from RCR, and 31.3% from CCR.
Here’s a summary of the alterations in condo rental prices, year-over-year adjustments, and the rental volumes among CCR, RCR, and OCR in November 2023:
| Region | Rental price change (%) | Rental volumes (%) | Year-on-year change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Central Region (CCR) | -2.0 | 31.3 | 5.0 |
| Rest of Central Region (RCR) | -2.0 | 32.0 | 6.4 |
| Outside Central Region (OCR) | 0.0 | 36.6 | 7.7 |
Private residential market outlook
Looking forward, expectations for the private residential market suggest a moderation in rental price growth in 2024, ranging from 2% to 5%. This contrasts sharply with the rapid 29.7% growth observed in 2022 and the forecasted 12% to 14% range for 2023
HDB rental market
Narrowing pricing gap
In contrast to the condo market, HDB rentals experienced a rebound in November, with prices increasing by 0.8% from October. Mr. Luqman notes that the pricing gap between condo and HDB rental prices is narrowing, driven by larger 5-room and executive flats.
November 2023 HDB rental insights
Breaking down the HDB rental data for November 2023, rents increased by 0.8% from the previous month, with mature estates and non-mature estates experiencing rises of 1.0% and 0.6% respectively. Across all room types, rent increases were observed: 3-room by 0.4%, 4-room by 0.9%, 5-room by 0.7%, and executive flats by 1.7%.
On a year-on-year basis, overall rents increased by 12%, with mature estates and non-mature estates growing by 11.2% and 13% respectively.
| Metric | Month-on-month change in rent prices (%) | Year-on-year change in rent prices (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.8 | 12.0 |
| Mature Estates | 1.0 | 11.2 |
| Non-Mature Estates | 0.6 | 13.0 |
Volume dynamics in HDB market
HDB rental volumes decreased by 5.7% month-on-month, with an estimated 2,693 units rented in November, compared to 2,856 units in October. However, on a year-on-year basis, rental volumes increased by 10% from November 2022.
Breaking down the volume by room type, 37.7% came from 4-room flats, 33.4% from 3-room units, 22.8% from 5-room flats, and 6.2% from executive units.
Cautious optimism for HDB rental market
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the HDB rental market, with forecasts indicating potential growth of up to 10% in 2024. However, opinions among industry watchers remain mixed on this matter.
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