The results for the May 2023 BTO launch are in, along with the average HDB BTO application rates for each estate’s project(s). The hot favourite among first- and second-timers for this round was the Serangoon North Vista May 2023 BTO project.
While some of us would fight tooth and nail for BTO flats in a more central location, there are also HDB BTO flat applicants who just want a place ASAP. And to up the chances of securing a unit, balloting for a project in an estate with a low HDB BTO application rate is a solid ‘strategy’.
Thinking about applying for an upcoming August 2023 BTO project but need help getting started?
Watch Our Guide to Applying for an HDB BTO Flat
Note: effective August 2023, you’ll need to apply for the HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter before you submit your BTO application. The HFE letter will help you access your HDB flat, CPF Housing Grant, and HDB loan eligibility statuses.
While the HDB Flat Portal will take about 21 working days to process your request, it may see delays during peak periods (e.g. during BTO launch weeks) – so we say, apply for the HFE letter ahead of time!
Once you’re 100% sure what type of BTO flat you can apply for, the next question you may have is, which BTO project might be easiest to ballot for?
Note: The highest chance of success is to ballot for a flat type in a project in which the average application rate is 1. This means the number of applicants is the same as the number of units available, so you’re sure to get a ballot number. Looking at this average application rate, we can kinda find out which estates are the easiest to get an HDB BTO flat in.
HDB BTO Application Rates for PLH BTO Flats: How Were They Like?
Before we dive into this topic, let’s take a look at flats launched under the Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) model.
BTO flats released under the HDB PLH model are a new category of flats. In a way, these are the crème de la crème of HDB BTO flats as these public housing projects sit on prime land.
And owing to their premium location, there are of course more restrictions in place. Such as a Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) of 10 years (up from the usual five), disallowing the rental of the entire flat, and limiting the pool of eligible resale buyers for these PLH flats.
In November 2021, the first batch of PLH flats launched in Rochor, River Peaks I & II. The 960 3- and 4-room units available saw a total of 7,843 HDB BTO applications, at an average application rate of 8.2.
Average PLH Application Rate From November 2021 to May 2023
| Project(s), year | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Average application rate |
| River Peaks I & II (Central), Nov 2021 | 3-room: 280 4-room: 680 = 960 |
3-room: 867 4-room: 6,976 = 7,843 |
3-room: 3.1 4-room: 10.3 = 8.2 |
| King George’s Heights (Kallang/Whampoa), Feb 2022 | 3-room: 104 4-room: 294 = 398 |
3-room: 661 4-room: 5,140 = 5,801 |
3-room: 6.4 4-room: 17.5 = 14.6 |
| Bukit Merah Ridge (Bukit Merah), May 2022 | 3-room: 443 4-room: 1,226 =1,669 |
3-room: 723 4-room: 6,560 = 7,283 |
3-room: 1.6 4-room: 5.4 = 4.4 |
| Ghim Moh Ascent (Queenstown), May 2022 | 3-room: 196 4-room: 671 = 867 |
3-room: 293 4-room: 2,919 = 3,212 |
3-room: 1.5 4-room: 4.4 = 3.7 |
| Havelock Hillside/Alexandra Vale (Bukit Merah), Aug 2022 | 3-room: 353 4-room: 1,298 = 1,651 |
3-room: 967 4-room: 7,916 = 8,883 |
3-room: 2.7 4-room: 6.1 = 5.4 |
| Kallang Horizon (Kallang Whampoa), Nov 2022 | 3-room: 72 4-room: 405 = 477 |
3-room: 550 4-room: 4,561 = 5,111 |
3-room: 7.6 4-room: 11.3 = 10.7 |
| Ghim Moh Natura / Queensway Canopy* / Ulu Pandan Banks (Queenstown), Nov 2022 | 3-room: 587 4-room: 2,443 = 3,030 |
3-room: 557 4-room: 5,652 = 6,209 |
3-room: 0.9 4-room: 2.3 = 2.0 |
| Farrer Park Fields / Rajah Summit (Kallang/Whampoa), Feb 2023* | 3-room: 184 4-room: 1,422 = 1,606 |
3-room: 673 4-room: 6,857 = 7,530 |
3-room: 3.7 4-room: 4.8 = 4.7 |
| Farrer Park Arena (Kallang/Whampoa), May 2023 | 3-room: 92 4-room: 477 = 569 |
3-room: 193 4-room: 1,838 = 2,031 |
3-room: 2.1 4-room: 3.9 =3.6 |
HDB BTO Application Rate: Which Estates Give the Best Chance of Getting a Ballot Number
Top 5 Non-mature HDB Estates to Ballot for a BTO Flat
| Estate | Application rate for 3-room flats and bigger (non-elderly, overall) |
| Jurong West | 1.4 to 9.9 |
| Bukit Batok | 1.9 to 2.8 |
| Choa Chu Kang | 2.3 to 2.4 |
| Tengah | 2.5 to 15.1 |
| Yishun | 1.7 to 13.4 |
Traditionally, non-mature estates are located in the more ‘ulu’ parts of Singapore, in the Outside Central Region (OCR) with fewer amenities, popular schools and transport links as compared to their mature counterparts.
However, not all non-mature estates follow this trend. Hougang, Jurong East, Sembawang, and Woodlands are pretty popular and see stiff demand, with the demand for Hougang Citrine/Kovan Wellspring BTO flats hitting an impressive average application rate of 19.6 for 3-room HDB flats and above. That’s more than some mature estates!
For a high balloting success rate, if you don’t mind being away from the hustle and bustle, and possibly additional travelling time, the non-mature estates of Jurong West, Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang, Tengah, and Yishun are your best bet.
However, do note that the demand for Tengah varies. Even though COVID-19 construction delays have mostly alleviated, waiting times for BTO flats to be fully built are still longer than they were pre-pandemic; Tengah BTO flats have a shorter waiting time of just over three years, which makes them attractive to those with more urgent housing needs.
Touted as a new ‘forest town‘, future Tengah residents can experience green living in a car-free city centre, lots of walking paths and even shared gardening spaces. New transport links are also planned within the town.
Top 5 Mature HDB Estates to Ballot for a BTO Flat
| Estate | Application rate for 3-room flats & bigger (non-elderly, overall) |
| Serangoon | 9.4 to 13.8 |
| Queenstown | 1.4 to 7.3 |
| Toa Payoh | 5.0 to 8.3 |
| Pasir Ris | 5.3 |
| Geylang | 5.3 to 24.2 |
This list should be taken with a pinch of salt: depending on the project, many of these mature estates have seen application rates go through the roof. Some estates such as Toa Payoh and Geylang see varied demand, depending on the project size and location. The latest Serangoon North Vista May 2023 BTO launch was also the first Serangoon BTO launch in almost 10 years. Demand was further increased by reasons including Serangoon’s accessible location ad wealth of established F&B establishments within the estate.
The flats launched under the PLH model in Bukit Merah and Queenstown have a more stringent set of rules attached (e.g. longer MOP, subsidy clawbacks when the flat is sold on the open market for the first time, etc.). These factors combined may deter some from buying flats in these mature neighbourhoods.
Another factor we feel affects the application rate of BTO flats in these mature estates is the price. A 4-room BTO HDB flat on a lower floor in these mature neighbourhoods could easily fetch upwards of $500,000. Naturally, the relatively high (though subsidised) prices, could be daunting for first-time homeowners, especially if they intend to start a family and are just starting their careers (i.e. they don’t have much cash yet).
Average HDB BTO Application Rate From February 2020 to May 2023
To figure out which HDB BTO estates are the easiest to get an HDB BTO queue number in, we’ll look at recent data and figure out the HDB BTO application rates.
We looked at HDB BTO launches for 3-room and bigger flats for non-elderly applicants from February 2020 till May 2023, sans May 2020 as that was deferred to August 2020 which saw a bumper crop.
Flat types in all estates saw competition in varying doses. See the results of past launches yourself so you can guesstimate what kind of competition you might be facing.
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: February 2020
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Canberra Vista (Sembawang, Non-mature) | 3-room: 124 4-room: 385 5-room/ 3Gen: 266 Total rooms:775 |
= 7,633 |
= 9.8 |
| Toa Payoh Ridge / Kim Keat Ripples (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 1,313 |
= 12,619 |
= 9.6 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: August 2020
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Keat Hong Verge (Choa Chu Kang, Non-mature) |
= 408 |
= 946 |
= 2.3 |
| Parc Residences @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 564 |
= 3,083 |
= 5.5 |
| UrbanVille @ Woodlands / Champions Bliss (Non-mature) |
= 1,288 |
= 9,318 |
= 7.2 |
| Kebun Baru Edge (Ang Mo Kio, Mature) |
= 380 |
= 5,574 |
= 14.7 |
| Bishan Towers (Bishan, Mature) |
= 352 |
= 2,008 |
= 5.7 |
| Dakota One (Geylang, Mature) |
= 414 |
= 7,181 |
= 17.3 |
| Costa Grove (Pasir Ris, Mature) |
= 858 |
= 4,576 |
= 5.3 |
| Tampines GreenCrest / Tampines GreenOpal / Tampines GreenGlade (Tampines, Mature) |
= 1,770 |
= 3,752 |
= 2.1 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: November 2020
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Sun Sails (Sembawang, Non-mature) |
= 506 |
= 2,383 |
= 4.7 |
| Garden Court @ Tengah / Garden Terrace @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 1,115 |
= 3,115 |
= 2.8 |
| Bishan Ridges (Bishan, Mature) |
= 1,346 |
= 9,457 |
= 7.0 |
| Tampines GreenEmerald (Tampines, Mature) |
= 604 |
= 2,567 |
= 4.3 |
| Bartley Beacon / ParkView @ Bidadari (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 1,238 |
= 6,169 |
= 5.0 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: February 2021
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| West Hill @ Bukit Batok (Bukit Batok, Non-mature) |
= 799 |
= 1,493 |
= 1.9 |
| Parc Woods @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 470 |
= 1,492 |
= 3.2 |
| McNair Heights (Kallang/ Whampoa, Mature) |
= 490 |
= 3,282 |
= 6.7 |
| Bartley GreenRise / ParkEdge @ Bidadari / Alkaff Breeze (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 1,216 |
= 8,322 |
= 6.8 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: May 2021
| Project(s) | No. of Units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of Applicants (Non-Elderly) | Avg. Application Rate (Non-Elderly) |
| Garden Bloom @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 516 |
= 2,191 |
= 4.2 |
| Woodgrove Ascent (Woodlands, Non-mature) |
= 854 |
= 4,235 |
= 5.0 |
| Telok Blangah Beacon (Bukit Merah, Mature) |
= 175 |
= 4,078 |
= 23.3 |
| MacPherson Weave (Geylang, Mature) |
= 1,166 |
= 6,164 |
= 5.3 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: August 2021
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Hougang Citrine / Kovan Wellspring (Hougang, Non-mature) |
= 739 |
= 14,491 |
= 19.6 |
| Toh Guan Grove (Jurong East, Non-mature) |
= 325 |
= 4,148 |
= 12.8 |
| Towner Residences (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature) |
= 316 |
= 2,193 |
= 6.9 |
| Queen’s Arc (Queenstown, Mature) |
= 610 |
= 4,453 |
= 7.3 |
| Tampines GreenQuartz / Tampines GreenJade (Tampines, Mature) |
= 1,957 |
= 8,325 |
= 4.3 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: November 2021
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Tanjong Tree Residences @ Hougang / Hougang Olive (Non-mature) |
= 690 |
= 3,495 |
= 5.1 |
| Nanyang Opal (Jurong West, Non-mature) |
= 221 |
= 316 |
= 1.4 |
| Parc Glen @ Tengah / Parc Clover @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 1,723 |
= 4,349 |
= 2.5 |
| River Peaks I / River Peaks II (Central) |
= 960 |
= 7,843 |
= 8.2 |
| Kent Heights (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature) | 4-room: 276 | 4-room: 1,813 | 4-room: 6.6 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: February 2022
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Parc Flora @ Tengah / Plantation Creek (Non-mature) |
= 1,172 |
= 4,581 |
= 3.9 |
| Yishun Boardwalk / Grove Spring @ Yishun (Non-mature) |
= 1,461 |
= 5,013 |
= 3.4 |
| Dakota Crest (Geylang, Mature) |
= 322 |
= 7,794 |
= 24.2 |
| King George’s Heights (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature) |
= 398 |
= 5,801 |
= 14.6 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: May 2022
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Lakeside View (Jurong West, Non-mature |
= 561 |
= 5,567 |
= 9.9 |
| Yishun Beacon (Yishun, Non-mature) |
= 373 |
= 5,016 |
= 13.4 |
| Bukit Merah Ridge (Bukit Merah, Mature) |
= 1,669 |
= 7,283 |
= 4.4 |
| Ghim Moh Ascent (Queenstown, Mature) |
= 867 |
= 3,212 |
= 3.7 |
| Kim Keat Heights (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 265 |
= 2,212 |
= 8.3 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: August 2022
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Keat Hong Grange (Choa Chu Kang, Non-mature) |
= 793 |
= 1,872 |
= 2.4 |
| Jurong East Breeze (Jurong East, Non-mature) |
= 339 |
= 2,032 |
= 6.0 |
| Woodlands South Plains (Woodlands, Non-mature) |
= 355 |
= 3,840 |
= 10.8 |
| Central Weave @ AMK (Ang Mo Kio, Mature) |
= 770 |
= 11,546 |
= 15.0 |
| Alexandra Vale / Havelock Hillside (Bukit Merah, Mature) |
= 1,651 |
= 8,883 |
= 5.4 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: November 2022
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| West Glades @ Bukit Batok (Bukit Batok, Non-mature) | 3-room: 84 4 room: 207 5-room: 168 = 459 |
3-room: 171 4-room: 511 5-room: 597 = 1,279 |
3-room: 2.0 4-room: 2.5 5-room: 3.6 = 2.8 |
| Garden Waterfront I @ Tengah / Garden Waterfront II @ Tengah (Tengah, Non-mature) | 3-room: 89 4-room: 740 5-room: 670 = 1,499 |
3-room: 326 4-room: 1,933 5-room: 2,849 = 5,108 |
3-room: 3.7 4-room: 2.6 5-room: 4.3 = 3.4 |
| Miltonia Breeze @ Yishun / Vanda Breeze @ Yishun / Aranda Breeze @ Yishun (Yishun, Non-mature) | 3-room: 91 4-room: 917 5-room: 795 = 1,803 |
3-room: 383 4-room: 1,422 5-room: 1,410 = 3,215 |
3-room: 4.2 4-room: 1.6 5-room: 1.8 = 1.8 |
| Kallang Horizon (Kallang Whampoa, Non-mature) | 3-room: 72 4-room: 405 = 477 |
3-room: 550 4-room: 4,561 = 5,111 |
3-room: 7.6 4-room: 11.3 = 10.7 |
| Ghim Moh Natura / Queensway Canopy / Ulu Pandan Banks (Queenstown, Non-mature) | 3-room: 587 4-room: 2,443 = 3,030 |
3-room: 557 4-room: 5,652 = 6,209 |
3-room: 0.9 4-room: 2.3 = 2.0 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: February 2023
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Jurong West Crystal (Jurong West, Non-mature) | 3-room: 85 4-room: 186 = 271 |
3-room: 242 4-room: 567 = 809 |
3-room: 2.8 4-room: 3.0 = 3.0 |
| Brickland Weave (Tengah, Non-mature) | 3-room: 95 4-room: 597 5-room: 526 = 1,218 |
3-room: 404 4-room: 1,334 5-room: 1,680 = 3,418 |
3-room: 4.3 4-room: 2.2 5-room: 3.2 = 2.8 |
| Farrer Park Fields / Rajah Summit (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature) | 3-room: 184 4-room: 1,422 = 1,606 |
3-room: 673 4-room: 6,857 = 7,530 |
3-room: 3.7 4-room: 4.8 = 4.6 |
| Ulu Pandan Glades (Queenstown, Mature) | 3-room: 160 4-room: 572 = 732 |
3-room: 231 4-room: 2,531 = 2,762 |
3-room: 1.4 4-room: 4.4 = 3.8 |
Average HDB BTO Application Rates: May 2023
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-room, 4-room, and 5-room/3Gen) | Number of applicants | Average application rate |
| Bedok South Blossoms (Bedok, mature) | 3-room: 120 4-room: 766 5-room/3Gen: 610 = 1,496 |
3-room: 535 4-room: 2,823 5-room/3Gen: 3,189 = 6,547 |
3-room: 4.46 4-room: 3.69 5-room/3Gen: 5.23 = 4.38 |
| Farrer Park Arena (Kallang/Whampoa, mature) | 3-room: 92 4-room: 477 = 569 |
3-room: 193 4-room: 1,838 = 2,031 |
3-room: 2.1 4-room: 3.9 =3.6 |
| Plantation Weave and Parc Meadow @ Tengah (Tengah, non-mature) | 3-room: 170 4-room: 1,168 5-room: 990 = 2,328 |
3-room: 395 4-room: 1,981 5-room: 2,909 = 5,285 |
3-room: 2.3 4-room: 1.7 5-room: 1.9 = 2.3 |
| Serangoon North Vista (Serangoon, mature) | 4-room: 201 5-room: 129 = 330 |
4-room: 2,238 5-room: 2,525 = 4,763 |
4-room: 11.1 5-room: 19.6 = 14.4 |
Of course, these results aren’t conclusive as demand rests on multiple factors. Not just the estate, but also where the project site is, external factors like pent-up demand brought about by Singapore’s Circuit Breaker period during the pandemic, HDB construction delays that may see more couples looking for resale or rental units and so on.
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