Every year, there are four HDB BTO launches. They happen in February, May, August, and November. And the upcoming February 2023 BTO launch is right around the corner.
The upcoming February launch will offer about 4,410 flats across four estates in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Jurong West, and Tengah. Securing a BTO ballot number is probably at the top of many young couples’ and prospective homeowners’ minds.
To help you, we’ve put together this article to help you improve your BTO ballot chances. We will run you through the various priority schemes, as well as more tips on how to increase your chances of a successful ballot. Jump ahead in the article here:
- Why Are the BTO Application Rates So High?
- How Does BTO Selecting Work? Explaining the BTO Balloting System
- How to Improve Your BTO 2023 Application Chances
- HDB SBF Priority Schemes
- What Happens If You Give up Your HDB BTO Queue Number?
Why Are BTO Application Rates So High?
As you probably already know, BTO application rates have been really high of late. Flats are usually oversubscribed. Unsurprisingly, many families do not get an HDB BTO queue number on their first try, especially if they’re balloting for a unit in a mature estate.
A quick look at the application rates for the November 2022 BTO exercise confirms this:
HDB BTO Application Rate for November BTO 2022 Launch (for First-timers)
| Estate | HDB BTO application rate (3-room flat) | HDB BTO application rate (4-room flat) | HDB BTO application rate (5-room flat) |
| Bukit Batok (West Glades @ Bukit Batok) | 0.9 | 1.8
|
2.2
|
| Tengah (Garden Waterfront I @ Tengah) | 1.5 | – | – |
| Tengah (Garden Waterfront I @ Tengah / Garden Waterfront II @ Tengah) | – | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Yishun (Vanda Breeze @ Yishun) | 2.1 | – | – |
| Yishun (Miltonia Breeze @ Yishun / Vanda Breeze @ Yishun / Aranda Breeze @ Yishun) | – | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Kallang/Whampoa (Kallang Horizon) | 3.1 | 7.1 | – |
| Queenstown (Ghim Moh Natura / Queensway Canopy / Ulu Pandan Banks) | 0.3 | 1.4 | – |
Note: The BTO application rate is the number of applicants divided by the allocated flat supply. The BTO application rates indicated above are the overall rate for first-timers, but you can find the detailed breakdown on HDB’s website.
So why are BTO application rates so high? One possible reason is more BTO projects in recent times are launched in popular mature estates. These attractive locations may spur more to ‘try their luck’ at getting a home in one of these coveted neighbourhoods.
Another possible reason is more young couples and prospective homebuyers are worried about BTO construction delays and long waiting times. Consequently, more decided to apply for and secure a BTO flat ASAP, as they knew they’d have to wait longer for a BTO flat to be built.
One young couple we spoke to spent six years waiting for their BTO flat. They got engaged, had a wedding, and bore their first child during that time. Afterwards, they decided not to wait any longer, cancelled their BTO flat, and bought an HDB resale flat instead!
In response to high application rates and unhappiness from Singaporeans, HDB has ramped up its public housing programme, with 150 BTO projects to be built at the same time by 2025.
How Does BTO Selecting Work? Explaining the BTO Balloting System
Before we dive into understanding how you can improve your BTO ballot chances, we must first understand how the BTO balloting system works.
When applications open, home buyers apply for their desired estate and flat size (e.g. Toa Payoh, 4-room) on the HDB website. After applications close, HDB uses an online BTO balloting system to assign balloters queue numbers. Typically, after three to six weeks, the BTO ballot results are released.
The BTO queue number is the order in which BTO applicants get to pick their flats. This means that if your queue number is within the flat supply (e.g. there are 124 units available and your queue number is 124 and lower), then you are likely to get a flat.
If your queue number is higher than the flat supply (e.g. there are 124 units available and your queue number is 125 and higher), then you will only get the chance to pick a flat if someone ahead of you in the queue decides to pass up their chance.
BTO Queue Numbers Are Assigned Randomly
HDB has a few priority schemes to help increase your chances of getting a BTO queue number. However, BTO queue numbers are assigned randomly, so there is no ‘actual’ way to somehow get a better queue number.
What this means is that while you can double your chances of getting a BTO queue number, you can’t do anything to get ahead in the queue and pick first.
BTO First-timers Get Double the Chances
By default, if you’re a first-timer, you get twice the BTO ballot chances as compared to second-timers. Remember this when you’re making your first application so you don’t waste it.
Get Additional Chances After Multiple Unsuccessful Attempts in Non-mature Estates
To help those who have had many failed BTO balloting attempts, don’t lose hope! If you were unsuccessful for two or more tries (in a non-mature estate), you will get one additional chance per subsequent application.
| Number of unsuccessful BTO applications in a non-mature estate | Total number of BTO ballot chances (Including first-timer bonuses) |
| 0 to 1 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 |
Consider the Racial Quota/Ethnic Integration Policy (EIP) for HDB
The ‘racial quota’ that most people are aware of is the Ethnic Integration Policy (EIP), which was introduced in 1989 to encourage racial integration. Basically, for every HDB block or neighbourhood, there is a limit on the total percentage of homes that can be occupied by a certain ethnicity.
Although it’s not something you can do anything about, EIP affects your BTO ballot chances because the actual number of units you’re eligible for depends on the ratio of applicants who apply for a BTO flat’s races.
Say, you got queue number 100, and there is a total flat supply of 124 units. There is a chance that you may not get a unit if the racial quota was already met before your turn. For example, if you’re Chinese and all 90 units allocated for Chinese households were already snapped up, you would not get a chance.
In this case, your application will be nullified, and you won’t be penalised for rejecting a BTO flat.
What If I Get the Last Queue Number Invited for Selection at HDB?
If you’re lucky enough to get a ballot number, congratulations!
For those whose ballot numbers are two digits, you are pretty much assured that you can select the flat you want. But if you get a not-so-great queue number (we’re talking four digits), you may be wondering what the last queue number invited for selection at HDB will be.
Most first-timer applicants who apply for a BTO project with an application rate of 1.7 or lower have a decent shot at selecting a unit as the dropout rate is 40%. So depending on how many units there are for the launch you’ve applied for, you may still be able to secure a BTO flat.
How to Improve Your BTO 2023 Application Chances
Now, onto the main reason you clicked on this article: how to improve your ballot chances, featuring the various HDB priority schemes.
| HDB BTO priority scheme | Eligibility criteria | Flat allocation |
| Married Child Priority Scheme (MCPS) | Stay within 4km of your parents’ home or live together with them | Up to 30% of BTO units for first-timers (Up to 5% for second-timers) |
| Multi-Generation Priority Scheme (MGPS) | Apply for the same BTO project as parents | For parents, up to 15% of the 2-room Flexi or 3-room flats (min. 20 units). For the married child household, the corresponding number of 2-room Flexi or larger flats. |
| Parenthood Priority Scheme (PPS) | For first-timers expecting a child | Up to 30% of BTO units for first-timers (Up to 5% for second-timers) |
| Third Child Priority Scheme (TCPS) | For families with more than two children | Up to 5% of BTO units |
| Assistance Scheme for Second-Timers (ASSIST) | For divorced or widowed persons with children | Up to 5% (for 2-room Flexi and 3-room flats in non-mature estates only). Quota is shared with the 30% quota for second-timers. |
| Tenants’ Priority Scheme (TPS) | For those who were previously renting an HDB rental flat | Up to 10% of 2-room Flexi and 3-room BTO units |
| Senior Priority Scheme (SPS) | For elderly residents who want a familiar environment or to live near their family | 40% of 2-room Flexi units (subject to a minimum of 100 units for each BTO project) are allocated for the elderly. Of this, half is set aside for this scheme |
Note: The above list of HDB priority schemes is not exhaustive. There are other HDB priority schemes listed above that can help increase your BTO ballot chances, but these are for niche groups of applicants like divorced/widowed parents, rental flat tenants, and elderly applicants.
1. Stay Within 4km of Your Parents (MCPS)
HDB reserves up to 30% of BTO units for those who apply under the MCPS, which is when you apply for a BTO project within 4km of your parents’ home (HDB flat or private property).
Note: if you apply through the MCPS, the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) will apply to your folks too. They must continue to live within the same radius of your home until the five years MOP is up.
2. Or Better yet, Live with Them (MCPS)
Under the same scheme, you can also apply to live together with your parents (i.e. you apply for the BTO with them). This will give you first priority within the MCPS quota.
3. Apply for the Same BTO Project as Your Parents (MGPS)
If your parents are also looking for a home, you can both apply to the same BTO project to increase your chances. This is for those who want all three generations of the family to live close by.
Under the Multi-Generation Priority Scheme, you can make a joint application for the two separate flats. Your parents can only apply for 2-room Flexi and 3-room flats, so the BTO project you pick must have this unit mix.
4. Have a Child, or More Children (PPS and TCPS)
For obvious reasons, if you are expecting a child, your application is prioritised because you probably need the home more urgently. If you’re an expecting married couple BTO-ing for the first time, you’ll be glad to know that up to 30% of the units are set aside for the PPS.
If you have three children, you may also qualify under the TCPS. The flat allocation for this one is lower at up to 5% of the BTO units.
If you qualify for both, your application will first be balloted under the TCPS. If unsuccessful, it will be balloted again under the PPS.
5. Ballot for a BTO Unit in a Non-mature Estate
Non-mature estates tend to see less competitive BTO application rates than mature estates because of:
- Their distance from the city centre
- Their distance from the nearest MRT stations (i.e. having to take a feeder bus)
- Fewer amenities are offered in the immediate neighbourhood of non-mature estates
While these up-and-coming neighbourhoods may not be as developed as their mature estate counterparts, they usually still offer a good amount of F&B options, healthcare facilities, and other services. And though you may not get an MRT station at your doorstep, Singapore’s bus system is highly developed. You are still well-connected to public transport systems.
Aside from being more affordable, BTO sites located in non-mature estates can also be ideal for those who enjoy a slower pace of living in a quieter area. Sometimes, these launches are also close to greenery and can even offer unblocked waterfront views.
For instance, there will be 2,960 units, spanning three sites for the upcoming November 2022 Yishun BTO launch, that overlook Orchid Country Club’s golf course and the Lower Seletar Reservoir. With the large supply of flats, this could make successfully balloting for a unit easier.
6. Apply on the Last Day of the BTO Exercise
Successfully balloting for a BTO flat is not contingent on how early you submit your application. It’s not a ‘fastest fingers first’ situation like the Open Booking of Flats (OBF) exercise.
If you really want to secure a flat, monitor the BTO application rates for the various launches in an exercise. Throughout the application period, they are updated every few hours on the HDB website.
Then, on the last day of the BTO application exercise, apply for a flat type in an estate that sees the least competition.
Pro tip: smaller BTO units typically see lower demand, so consider going for a smaller flat if you’re in urgent need of a home.
HDB SBF Priority Schemes
| Priority scheme | Allocation |
| MCPS | First-timers: up to 30% Second timers: up to 3% |
| TCPS | Up to 5% |
| PPS | Up to 50% |
| TPS | Up to 10% |
You may be wondering: do the priority schemes also apply to the SBF exercises? Yes, similarly, priority schemes such as MCPS, TCPS, PPS, and TPS also apply to SBF applicants.
Additionally, the allocation is also based on whether it’s a mature or non-mature estate. You may read more on HDB’s website.
What Happens If You Give up Your HDB BTO Queue Number?
In some cases, applicants get a queue number or ballot number but end up passing up the opportunity. There are several (completely understandable) reasons why:
- If your queue number is far behind, the units left for selection may not be suitable
- Couples may have broken up and chosen not to proceed with their BTO application
- Some applicants also drop out due to unexpected financial difficulties like job loss, etc.
As you would’ve noticed, first-timers already get improved BTO chances. So what happens if you apply, receive a queue number, but then decide to give it up?
You get one ‘free’ pass. However, if you forfeit your flat selection opportunity twice…
For First-Timer Households:
- Any additional chances accumulated from your past unsuccessful BTO attempts will be considered used up
- You will be placed in the second-timer category for one year
- During this year, if you turn down another two chances, the one-year period will be extended
For Second-Timer Households:
- You will have to wait one year before you apply again
For Applicants Under the Singles Scheme:
- You cannot apply under the Singles Singapore Citizen Scheme, Joint Singles Scheme or Non-Citizen Spouse Scheme for one year
There you have it: everything you need to know to maximise your HDB BTO 2023 ballot chances. Generally, if you want a new HDB flat, we would encourage you to continue trying until you are successful. As mentioned earlier, your chances actually improve from your third try onward.
However, if you do not have the luxury of time – especially since the timeline for HDB BTO flats is in years – you may want to consider an HDB resale flat. With CPF housing grants, the gap between BTO and resale flat prices has narrowed, and it’s very possible to find an affordable resale flat, despite the resale flat prices being at a record high.
How Do I Apply for BTO: Watch Our Video
Now that you know how to improve your BTO chances, watch our video to learn how to apply for a BTO flat.
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