In the first three quarters of 2022, sales activity in the residential property market in Singapore slowed due to a confluence of reasons – the December 2021 cooling measures, inflationary pressures, increasing interest rates and a worsening economic outlook.
Despite the uncertain economic outlook, the prices of private homes and HDB resale flats remained buoyant. New home sales continued to perform well due to the limited supply. The buying preference for larger HDB resale homes also persisted, leading to a record-high number of million-dollar flats transacted in 2022.
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Want a quick snapshot of the PropertyGuru Singapore Property Market Outlook 2023? Here’s a handy overview of our key findings and insights.
Contents
- Looking back at 2022
- What to expect in 2023
- New major projects in 2023
- Conclusion: Demand Likely to Be Tempered in 2023
Looking Back at 2022
Despite the triple whammy of higher interest rates, government cooling measures in December 2021 and September 2022, and rising home prices, the prices of both private homes and HDB resale flats continued to climb.
However, transaction volumes started to slide as home seekers reconsidered their choice of buying.
New condo launches continued to do well due to pent-up demand and because there were few new projects available on the market. The number of uncompleted private residential units unsold remains 8.5% lower than a year ago in Q3 2021.
New price benchmarks were set in the Outside Central Region (OCR) due to the new condo launches – such as AMO Residence, Sky Eden @ Bedok, and Lentor Modern – being well-received.
The higher costs of buying a private home pushed some property seekers into the HDB resale market. Rising price trends observed in private homes also encouraged private homeowners to realise their gains.
These homeowners then ‘right sized’ to a smaller private unit or moved to a larger HDB flat. As a result, higher transaction volumes of million-dollar HDB resale flats were observed, with 111 HDB resale flats exchanging hands for $1 million or more in the third quarter of Q3 2022 alone.
In response to rising property prices and interest rates, a fresh round of property cooling measures was introduced in September 2022. Higher interest rate floors and a lowered Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit for HDB-granted loans were introduced.
Additionally, a 15-month wait-out period for private homeowners looking to ‘downgrade’ to HDB resale flats was also imposed. As such, the volume of million-dollar HDB flat transactions may drop in months ahead.
What to Expect in 2023
Prices are likely to stabilise further, and sales are likely to decline amid moderation in price increases. However, the possibility of a price correction cannot be ruled out should economic conditions worsen significantly.
Also, more first-time buyers may shift their sights to the rental market because of affordability constraints. But renting is still seen as a temporary means to meet short- to medium-term housing needs.
The Government continues to ramp up BTO supply to meet the demand for homes and set aside more homes for first-time applicants. On the private property front, the Singapore government has increased the land supply available for private housing under the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme.
While an increase in supply would moderate the rise in prices, the effect of the increased supply is likely to be lagged.
With inflation remaining unabated, the US Federal Reserve is expected to continue increasing the Fed Rate. But the rising mortgage interest rates are expected to moderate in H2 2023.
New Major Projects in 2023
Conclusion: Demand Likely to Be Tempered in 2023
In the first six months, prices are likely to stay at the current level or increase modestly as sellers have the holding power to maintain their asking prices. However, the scenario may drastically change if the already weakened economy is subjected to unforeseen shocks.
For a more in-depth analysis of the above, read the full Singapore Property Market Outlook 2023:
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Or, read past years’ Property Market Outlook Reports:
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