The results for the HDB BTO May 2022 launch are in, along with the average HDB BTO application rate for each estate’s project. The hot favourite among first-timer for this round was the May 2022 Yishun BTO Map launch, Yishun Beacon. Surprisingly, the Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) flats in Bukit Merah and Queenstown saw much less demand.
While some of us would fight tooth-and-nail for flats in a more central location, there are also HDB BTO flat applicants who just want a place ASAP. For some, maybe they’re tired of repeatedly trying for an HDB BTO flat. And to succeed, perhaps the best chance is to ballot for a project in an estate with a low HDB BTO application rate.
So which are the easiest estates to get an HDB BTO flat in?
HDB BTO Application Rates: How Were They Like?
Before we dive into this topic, let’s take a look at the HDB BTO May 2022 application rates received as of 2 June 2022, 11.59pm for flats that were 3-room and bigger for non-elderly applicants. Flat types in all estates saw competition in varying doses.
HDB BTO 2022: Average Application Rate
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Lakeside View (Jurong West, Non-mature |
= 561 |
= 5,567 |
= 9.9 |
| Yishun Beacon (Yishun, Non-mature) |
= 373 |
= 5,016 |
= 13.4 |
| Bukit Merah Ridge (Bukit Merah, Mature) |
= 1,669 |
= 7,283 |
= 4.4 |
| Ghim Moh Ascent (Queenstown, Mature) |
= 867 |
= 3,212 |
= 3.7 |
| Kim Keat Heights (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 265 |
= 2,212 |
= 8.3 |
Source: HDB
The HDB BTO May 2022 Yishun launch took the top spot, with an average application rate of 13.4. This figure is much higher than the two PLH launches in Bukit Merah and Queenstown; they had an average application rate of 4.4 and 3.7 respectively, for their 3-room and bigger flats for non-elderly applicants.
Note: The highest chance of success is to ballot for a flat type in a project in which the average application rate is 1. This means the number of applicants is the same as the number of units available, so you’re sure to get a ballot number. Looking at this average application rate, we can kinda find out which estates are the easiest to get an HDB BTO flat in.
Related article: BTO Application Rates in 2022 Are High: Here’s How to Improve Your HDB BTO Application Ballot Chances in Singapore
November 2021 vs May 2022 PLH BTO Flats
Flats released under the HDB Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) model are a new category of flats. In a way, these are the crème de la crème of HDB BTO flats as these public housing projects sit on prime land.
And owing to their premium location, there are of course more restrictions in place. Such as a Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) of 10 years (up from the usual five), disallowing the rental of the entire flat, and limiting the pool of eligible resale buyers for these PLH flats.
In November 2021, the first batch of PLH flats launched in Rochor, River Peaks I & II. The 960 3- and 4-room units available saw a total of 7,843 HDB BTO applications, at an average application rate of 8.2.
Related article: Prime Location Public Housing Nov 2021 Rochor BTO Flats: 6 Singaporeans Answer Why They Did or Did Not Apply
The HDB BTO application rate for the May BTO 2022 PLH model flats at Bukit Merah (Bukit Merah Ridge) and Queenstown (Ghim Moh Ascent) have turned out to be less popular, with an average HDB BTO application rate of 4.4 and 3.7 respectively.
The competition was even tougher for the second PLH project in Kallang/Whampoa, King George’s Heights, which opened in February, with nearly 11 first-time applicants fighting for each of the 294 available four-room flats.
Related article: HDB BTO Prices Sorted by Estate and Price of Rooms in Singapore (from 2019 to Feb 2022)
HDB BTO Application Rate: Which Estates Have the Highest Chance of Getting Ballot Number
Let’s go back to the crux of this article, which is to suss out which estates have the highest chance of balloting and getting a successful queue number.
Top 5 Non-mature HDB Estates to Ballot for a BTO Flat
| Estate | Application Rate for 3-room Flats & Bigger (Non-Elderly, Overall) |
| Jurong West | 1.4 |
| Bukit Batok | 1.9 |
| Choa Chu Kang | 2.3 |
| Tengah | From 2.5 |
| Yishun | 5.5 |
Traditionally, non-mature estates are located in the more ‘ulu’ parts of Singapore, in the Outside Central Region with fewer amenities, popular schools and transport links as compared to their mature counterparts.
However, not all non-mature estates buck this trend. From the full list above, Hougang, Jurong East, Sembawang and Woodlands are pretty popular, with the demand for Hougang Citrine / Kovan Wellspring BTO flats hitting an impressive overall application rate of 19.6 for 3-room flats and above. That’s more than some mature estates!
For a high balloting success rate, if you don’t mind being away from the hustle and bustle, and possibly additional travelling time, the non-mature estates of Jurong West, Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang, Tengah and Yishun are your best bet.
However, do note that the demand for Tengah varies. Touted as a new ‘forest town, future residents can experience green living in a car-free city centre, lots of walking paths and even shared gardening spaces. New transport links are also planned within the town. With the new BTO units in Tengah quickly filling up, we can expect demand to soon outstrip supply.
Top 5 Mature HDB Estates to Ballot for a BTO Flat
| Estate | Application Rate for 3-room Flats & Bigger (Non-Elderly, Overall) |
| Tampines | From 2.1 |
| Toa Payoh | From 5.0 |
| Pasir Ris | 5.3 |
| Geylang | From 5.3 |
| Bishan | From 5.7 |
This list should definitely be taken with a pinch of salt as depending on the project, many of these mature estates have seen application rates go through the roof, especially in those in the Rest of Central Region such as Toa Payoh, Geylang and Bishan.
For example, Bishan Towers saw an overall application rate for 3-room flats and bigger at just 5.7 but this could be due to its location — the nearest MRT station is 10 minutes away and it’s at a corner (although just beside a lovely park connector) of the expressway bisecting Toa Payoh and Bishan. Meanwhile, Bishan Ridges, which is near the MRT station, saw a higher application rate of 7.0 — this we feel could have been much higher, if not for the fact that this is a larger development with 1,346 units of 3-room or larger.
Other case studies are Toa Payoh and Geylang, where the demand also greatly varies, depending on the project size and location.
Another factor we feel affects the application rate of BTO flats in mature estates is price. A 4-room unit on a lower floor in the RCR could easily fetch upwards of $500k or even up to $700k. This could be daunting for first-time homeowners, especially if they intend to start a family and cannot afford to have cash outlay. Naturally, with such high (though subsidised) prices, the premium paid translates to wanting better transport links, views and other surrounding amenities.
Average HDB BTO Application Rate From Feb 2020 to May 2022
To figure out which HDB BTO estates are the easiest to get an HDB BTO queue number in, we’ll look at recent data and figure out the HDB BTO application rates. We looked at HDB BTO launches from 2020 till now, sans May 2020 as that was deferred to August 2020 which saw a bumper crop.
Here are the average HDB BTO application rates for launches between February 2020 to May 2022. See the results of past launches yourself so you can guesstimate what kind of competition you might be facing.
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: February 2020
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Canberra Vista (Sembawang, Non-mature) |
= 775 |
= 7,633 |
= 9.8 |
| Toa Payoh Ridge / Kim Keat Ripples (Toa Payoh, Mature)) |
= 1,313 |
= 12,619 |
= 9.6 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: August 2020
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Keat Hong Verge (Choa Chu Kang, Non-mature) |
= 408 |
= 946 |
= 2.3 |
| Parc Residences @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 564 |
= 3,083 |
= 5.5 |
| UrbanVille @ Woodlands / Champions Bliss (Non-mature) |
= 1,288 |
= 9,318 |
= 7.2 |
| Kebun Baru Edge (Ang Mo Kio, Mature) |
= 380 |
= 5,574 |
= 14.7 |
| Bishan Towers (Bishan, Mature) |
= 352 |
= 2,008 |
= 5.7 |
| Dakota One (Geylang, Mature) |
= 414 |
= 7,181 |
= 17.3 |
| Costa Grove (Pasir Ris, Mature) |
= 858 |
= 4,576 |
= 5.3 |
| Tampines GreenCrest / Tampines GreenOpal / Tampines GreenGlade (Tampines, Mature) |
= 1,770 |
= 3,752 |
= 2.1 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: November 2020
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Sun Sails (Sembawang, Non-mature) |
= 506 |
= 2,383 |
= 4.7 |
| Garden Court @ Tengah / Garden Terrace @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 1,115 |
= 3,115 |
= 2.8 |
| Bishan Ridges (Bishan, Mature) |
= 1,346 |
= 9,457 |
= 7.0 |
| Tampines GreenEmerald (Tampines, Mature) |
= 604 |
= 2,567 |
= 4.3 |
| Bartley Beacon / ParkView @ Bidadari (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 1,238 |
= 6,169 |
= 5.0 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: February 2021
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| West Hill @ Bukit Batok (Bukit Batok, Non-mature) |
= 799 |
= 1,493 |
= 1.9 |
| Parc Woods @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 470 |
= 1,492 |
= 3.2 |
| McNair Heights (Kallang/ Whampoa, Mature) |
= 490 |
= 3,282 |
= 6.7 |
| Bartley GreenRise / ParkEdge @ Bidadari / Alkaff Breeze (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 1,216 |
= 8,322 |
= 6.8 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: May 2021
| Project(s) | No. of Units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of Applicants (Non-Elderly) | Avg. Application Rate (Non-Elderly) |
| Garden Bloom @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 516 |
= 2,191 |
= 4.2 |
| Woodgrove Ascent (Woodlands, Non-mature) |
= 854 |
= 4,235 |
= 5.0 |
| Telok Blangah Beacon (Bukit Merah, Mature) |
= 175 |
= 4,078 |
= 23.3 |
| MacPherson Weave (Geylang, Mature) |
= 1,166 |
= 6,164 |
= 5.3 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: August 2021
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Hougang Citrine / Kovan Wellspring (Hougang, Non-mature) |
= 739 |
= 14,491 |
= 19.6 |
| Toh Guan Grove (Jurong East, Non-mature) |
= 325 |
= 4,148 |
= 12.8 |
| Towner Residences (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature) |
= 316 |
= 2,193 |
= 6.9 |
| Queen’s Arc (Queenstown, Mature) |
= 610 |
= 4,453 |
= 7.3 |
| Tampines GreenQuartz / Tampines GreenJade (Tampines, Mature) |
= 1,957 |
= 8,325 |
= 4.3 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: November 2021
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Tanjong Tree Residences @ Hougang / Hougang Olive (Non-mature) |
= 690 |
= 3,495 |
= 5.1 |
| Nanyang Opal (Jurong West, Non-mature) |
= 221 |
= 316 |
= 1.4 |
| Parc Glen @ Tengah / Parc Clover @ Tengah (Non-mature) |
= 1,723 |
= 4,349 |
= 2.5 |
| River Peaks I / River Peaks II (Central) |
= 960 |
= 7,843 |
= 8.2 |
| Kent Heights (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature) | 4-room: 276 | 4-room: 1,813 | 4-room: 6.6 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: February 2022
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Parc Flora @ Tengah / Plantation Creek (Non-mature) |
= 1,172 |
= 4,581 |
= 3.9 |
| Yishun Boardwalk / Grove Spring @ Yishun (Non-mature) |
= 1,461 |
= 5,013 |
= 3.4 |
| Dakota Crest (Geylang, Mature) |
= 322 |
= 7,794 |
= 24.2 |
| King George’s Heights (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature) |
= 398 |
= 5,801 |
= 14.6 |
HDB BTO Average Application Rate: May 2022
| Project(s) | No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room) | No. of applicants | Avg. application rate |
| Lakeside View (Jurong West, Non-mature |
= 561 |
= 5,567 |
= 9.9 |
| Yishun Beacon (Yishun, Non-mature) |
= 373 |
= 5,016 |
= 13.4 |
| Bukit Merah Ridge (Bukit Merah, Mature) |
= 1,669 |
= 7,283 |
= 4.4 |
| Ghim Moh Ascent (Queenstown, Mature) |
= 867 |
= 3,212 |
= 3.7 |
| Kim Keat Heights (Toa Payoh, Mature) |
= 265 |
= 2,212 |
= 8.3 |
Of course, these results aren’t conclusive as demand rests on multiple factors. Not just the estate, but also where the project site is, external factors like pent-up demand brought about by Singapore’s Circuit Breaker period during the pandemic, HDB construction delays that may see more couples looking for resale or rental units and so on.
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This article was written by Mary Wu, who hopes to share what she’s learnt from her home-buying and renovation journey with PropertyGuru readers. When she’s not writing, she’s usually baking up a storm or checking out a new cafe in town.
